1.0 Introduction

During LCI I built a model to evaluate card performance by draft position. I called the metric Draft Value (DV). The basic idea was to adjust GIH WR by ATA. In the next sections we'll discuss the top 5 commons/uncommons in each color, overperforming & underperforming cards, and briefly rank each color. All the data comes from 17lands. As it is still early in the set, some cards don't have enough data and have been left blank.

The model was created since GIH WR doesn't adjust for opportunity cost. Every set has some late picks put up awesome win rates and early picks that struggle. GIH WR cannot tell determine which card is intrinsically better. By adjusting for draft position (ATA) we can see which of those late picks are truly gems, and which early strugglers are truly stinkers.

The math behind it is to essentially divide GIH WR by ATA with some adjustments. Treat the below as a rough guideline:

As mentioned in previous articles: DV is a tool to help players make decisions. It should not be used as the sole factor in determining a pick.

2.0 White

White commons and uncommons have an average DV of 29 and a median of 26. Its top 5 all rank in the B range. This places it as the clear best color. White is aggressively slanted in this set. Normally this would mean trading value for tempo. However, a ton of its signature commons generate value and tempo (Inside Source, Museum Nightwatch)

2.1 Top 5 White Commons/Uncommons

2.1.1 Novice Inspector

Thraben Inspector has always been an awesome card, and this time it gets Detective synergies. It is uniquely useful at every point in the game. In your opener it lets you use your mana on turn 1. Even if it gets invalidated by a big blocker, you still have the clue token. As a late draw, it essentially cycles for 3 mana. It can be used as chump blocker to buy time to leverage the card draw it provides.

2.1.2 Neighborhood Guardian

A 2/2 for 2 mana that can grow will always have some good attacks. It can even pump other creatures, which is especially good at closing the game with evasive creatures. White has a ton of awesome 1-2 power creatures to trigger this. Instead being a build around, it is a natural inclusion to any White deck.

2.1.3 Makeshift Binding

3 mana to answer anything is already awesome. I have no idea why this also gains you two life, but it does. Since White is built to go wide, being able to answer big blockers is crucial. It is also an excellent splash with only 1 white pip in the cost. Splash cards need to impactful in the late game since you can't count on casting them on curve. Answering any threat and padding your life is a fantastic way to stabilize.

2.1.4 Case of the Gateway Express

Go wide strategies can struggle against big blockers. Without Burn spells, White aggro decks often lose with opponents at critically low life totals. This both answers big blockers and helps push those extra points of combat damage.

Cases are a new enchantment type. Playable ones should either worth a card even without being solved or be easy to solve. Gateway Express delivers on both.

2.1.5 Perimeter Enforcer

Flying and Lifelink is a deadly combo. Every single game of magic is about Who’s the Beatdown. Flying makes it hard for opponents to stabilize, demanding either direct removal or flying/reach blockers which are always at a premium in draft. Lifelink makes it hard for opponents to race. Dropping this on turn 2 makes it extremely difficult for opponents to figure out their role especially since it can grow.

2.2 White Over Performers

2.2.1 Auspicious Arrival

18th in ATA and 9th in WR. DV ranks it 10th, essentially meaning that it is a genuine late gem. Aggro decks, particularly creature based ones (i.e. no Lightning Bolt to close out on stabilized boards) can struggle to find the balance between pushing damage and having enough resources. Pumping both power and toughness helps win combat outright to ensure that developed threats keep applying pressure. The clue token is huge in staying gassed up.

2.2.2 On the Job

Pretty much the same as the previous card! White has a ton of ways to go wide, making this a bargain at 4 CMC. You only need to be pumping 3+ attackers for this to be a better rate than most cheap tricks.

2.3 White Under Performers

2.3.1 Call a Surprise Witness

11th in ATA but only 17th in DV due to being 20th in WR. Recommission was an awesome card in BRO which probably led to this being over drafted in MKM. BRO had a ton of self mill enablers like Airlift Chaplain. MKM instead relies on the Surveil mechanic which isn't available in White.

2.3.2 Case of the Pilfered Proof

Difficult to solve and rarely worth a card on its own. I think the issue stems from being an uncommon. Despite looking nice for a detective deck, the classic fear of missing out is causing players to draft it too highly. I think it is a fine wheel if you're already on detectives, but rarely a good early pick.

3.0 Blue

Blue commons and uncommons have an average DV of 24 and median of 25. This ranks it in the lower tier of colors. However, the detective synergies have performed reasonably well. It might not be a premium color, but it isn't a bad one either.

3.1 Top 5 Blue Commons/Uncommons

3.1.1 Exit Specialist

Any 2-drop with reasonable stats is fine on turn 2. Good 2-drops still perform on later turns. Being able to attack past 3 power blockers means this will rarely be invalidated by a bigger creature (beware 2/3s, 2/4s etc...). You are pretty much guaranteed to be able to trade this off at some point. The bounce option buys a ton of flexibility, either opening attacks or buying time since most creatures do not have haste in this set.

3.1.2 Surveillance Monitor

As discussed in my recent Vanilla Test article, 4 mana for a 3/3 kind of sucks in 2024. However, 4 mana for a 3/3 plus at least one 1/1 flier is pretty awesome. 2 bodies and 8 points of stats is good value. Can simultaneously attack in the air and have a blocker back on the ground.

3.1.3 Hard Evidence

I had no idea this card was even in this set. Didn't see it on scryfall or in any of my drafts/games. I think it is from the special guest/list segment of Play Boosters. Instead of talking about this reprint, I'd like to use this opportunity to discuss the impact of Play Boosters on limited.

Having multiple rares per pack makes it harder to read signals. Does being passed a rare mean the player to the right took a common/uncommon or did the pack simply have two rares? Rares tend to be bombs, and more rares per pack means the set skews Prince over Pauper.

"The List" and "Special Guests" add cards to the pool which weren't explicitly designed for the set. Conversely, the block format created thematical draft environments. In draft, less is more! Having fewer unique cards in the environment rewards skilled players who know the meta, possible tricks, and play patterns.

Conversely, for players who collect instead of draft the chance of getting multiple rares is cool. Moreover, "Magic the Gathering" became "Commander the Gathering" a long time ago. EDH players probably do enjoy the excitement of ripping eye-popping rares to add to their favorite decks. It was not feasible to have both Set and Draft boosters competing with each other. Play Boosters are a necessary compromise. While I miss Draft Boosters and especially Set Blocks I'd rather draft with Play Boosters than not draft at all.

3.1.4 Cold Case Cracker

Flying is an excellent way to turn commons/uncommons into must answer threats. 3 power in the air makes for a significant clock. Conversely, dying into a clue punishes opponents for answering it. At parity or when ahead this card is always awesome, either putting on the pressure or generating advantage. When behind it is weaker as a 4 mana 3/3 isn't a great blocker. However, it at least chumps into a clue token.

3.1.5 Projektor Inspector

In most limited sets, a 3 mana 3/2 that loots on ETB would be at least a C. This set has some graveyard synergies to making looting more than just card selection. Moreover, the plethora of detectives allow this to loot multiple times.

3.2 Blue Over Performers

3.2.1 Unauthorized Exit

22nd in ATA ranks this a wheel, while being 3rd in WR ranks it as a bomb. DV ranks it at 8th. While it is under drafted you shouldn't make the mistake of taking this in your first 3 picks. Morph (a.k.a. Disguise) is a mana hungry mechanic making MKM a mana intensive set. Although bounce spells put you down a card, the mana advantage in this meta can be significant. Surveil 1 isn't worth a card, but at least it is some value.

3.2.2 Reasonable Doubt

Similar idea to 3.2.1. 21st in ATA, 6th in WR and 9th in DV. Looking only at WR creates the impression that this is a top priority, while in reality it's just a really nice card. Since clue tokens can be sacrificed at instant speed it becomes easier to hold mana up for this. Note it is actually better on the draw since you can counter their morph instead of their 2-drop.

3.3 Blue Under Performers

3.3.1 Mistway Spy

The 3rd highest drafted Blue common/uncommon ranks 16th in DV due to being 22nd in GIH WR. I wonder how much this comes from misplays rather than issues with the card. A turn 1 flier can put on meaningful pressure. Conversely, for 3 mana to morph + 2 to flip you can generate card advantage. Admittedly, you do have to spend even more mana sacrificing the clues.

A common mistakes players make is navigating games one decision at a time. Playing that way makes it impossible to optimally play complicated cards like this one. It is better to figure out your role and come up with a plan to win the game. When you need to put on the pressure, an early flier is great. When you need to go over the top, this generates a ton of advantage.

I think the issues with the card stem both from it being mana intensive and difficult to play correctly. I've seen LSV do well with the card, so I do think in the right hands it isn't an under performer. It ranks 13th in GIH WR when filtering for top users.

3.3.2 Case of the Filched Falcon

Unlike Mistway Spy, this card actually does suck. It is nowhere close to Novice Inspector, which gives a body plus a clue. Filched Falcon forces you to play 3 mana before it actually does anything (1 to play, 2 to use the clue). Then you have to jump through the hoop of having artifacts and tap 3 more mana. It has negative synergy with itself since you'll often want to crack clues to hit land drops to have mana to spend, therefore making it harder to actually solve the case.

4.0 Black

Black ranks very similarly to Blue, with an average DV of 23 and median of 22. Again, it is a lower tier color but not an undraftable one. While Black does have some nice removal, 1:1 removal has been on a long decline in limited over the last several years. Its biggest weakness is over relying on uncommons over commons.

4.1 Top 5 Black Commons/Uncommons

4.1.1 Long Goodbye

2 mana to kill cheap threats is playable every time. Historically, the inability to answer big creatures can cause it to line up poorly against decks with inevitability. However, with the morph mechanic, your opponents big threats will still have a window where this can answer them. I have no idea why disguise gives ward when so many answers can't be countered. As LSV has mentioned, it would've been cleaner to print neither ward nor uncounterable - perhaps balancing for constructed was a factor.

4.1.2 Leering Onlooker

You don't need me to explain why this card is awesome! But I'll do it anyways. 1/3 statlines normally block well but struggle to put on pressure. However, flying really helps on offense making this a powerful two drop no matter who the beatdown is. If your opponent answers it, you just get 2 more threats. Even when dominated in the air, you can chump and make two more chump blockers (although entering tapped gives a window for your opponent to dish some damage). Always an impactful card, snap this one up nice and early!

4.1.3 Undercity Eliminator

Exile based removal is always good. While having to sacrifice a creature is normally a steep cost, this pairs excellently with Unscrupulous Agent who barely missed the top 5. Normally a 5 mana 3/3 would struggle to contribute in combat. However, popping your opponents best creature on ETB makes it easy to get in some damage.

4.1.4 Soul Enervation

This is basically a 2:1 removal spell. With the "collect evidence" mechanic, the enchantment can easily impact life totals after removing a meaningful threat. Draining for 1 is incredible. Stabilizes you when behind, closes out games when ahead. At parity, this card is insane. Your life total matters just as much as your opponents, making each trigger a 2 point swing.

4.1.5 Murder

Once upon a time, this was a super premium card, often printed at uncommon. Now it's just a pretty good card. 3 CMC hard removal does line up well with expensive morphs, although those often generate some sort of incidental value from flipping. It is a little expensive against the go-wide aggro decks, but not unplayable. You can't go wrong with cheapish instant speed interaction, but I wouldn't exactly be thrilled first picking Murder in 2024.

4.2 Black Over Performers

4.2.1 Extract a Confession

Edicts are normally pretty weak in limited. Your opponent gets to sacrifice their worst creature. This often pressures you to fire the edicts off early, before they have an incidental 1/1 token to sacrifice. Removal in limited is typically best saved for the perfect moment (opening an attack in aggro, popping a big threat in control).

The collect evidence option makes a huge difference. You can afford to be patient, knowing it will trade for something meaningful. I still would only want 1, but I'd be really happy to have that first copy.

4.2.2 Festerleech

I myself am very guilty of disrespecting this card. It looks like draft chaff, and is being drafted 12th in ATA despite being 3rd in WR (7th in DV). However, self mill has a lot of applications in this set. I think the data isn't actually saying that Festerleech is a powerful card, but rather than self mill synergies are powerful and this is a good enabler for them. The threat of activation on the pump ability can help it chip in for the mill triggers.

4.3 Black Under Performers

4.3.1 Slice from the Shadows

A classic case of a good card being overdrafted. It ranks 7th in ATA, essentially being drafted as premium removal. However, it ranks 12th in WR. DV places it 11th overall - playable removal, but not premium removal. You should still be happy to draft this card, just take it a pick or two later.

4.3.2 Case of the Gorgon's Kiss

Remember, good cases either don't need to be solved or are easy to solve. Despite being drafted 13th highest, it ranks 24th in DV. Without flash, it is really hard to get value out of the ETB. A 4/4 lifelink + deathtouch is powerful but needing 3 creatures to die (yours or opponents) is awkward especially once this is face up. I'd be happy to speculate on this late, but would not be willing to prioritize it.

5.0 Green

Green ranks 3rd overall in the set (Red and White are the best, Blue and Black and the worst). It has an average DV of 26, and median of 27. Interestingly, it's uncommons are skewed at either the top or bottom of the rankings.

5.1 Top 5 Green Commons/Uncommons

5.1.1 A Killer Among Us

This card has a lot of text. It essentially makes a 4/4 and two 1/1s (with extra steps). 12 points of stats is awesome for 5 mana. While the big token is vulnerable to bounce, creating 3 tokens helps insulate against traditional removal. The threat of activation granting deathtouch can open some bluff attacks for chip damage.

5.1.2 Flourishing Bloom-Kin

At first glance, this seems to be restricted to mono green. I wouldn't run this out as a 2-drop unless I was playing 17 forests. However, the ability to tutor for 2 forests when morphing ensures this will always be a sizeable threat. Again, MKM is a mana hungry set. You aren't just thinning the deck of lands, the extra mana has real value.

5.1.3 Get a Leg Up

To be honest, I thought this card sucked during spoilers. I still think it sucks. Maybe some experienced drafters can help explain this card's performance. Being a 1 mana instant is a good start, I just hate that it doesn't push damage via trample and is very board dependent.

5.1.4 Glint Weaver

I think every Green deck wants 1 copy of this card. There are a ton of fliers in this set. On its own a reach blocker is still vulnerable to removal. However, Weaver crucially pads your life total. Being able to spread out the +1/+1 counters can help you set up to stabilize and turn the corner on the same turn (i.e. set up big blockers and start attacking at the same time).

5.1.5 Greenbelt Radical

You get what you pay for here! For a huge amount of mana, this makes a huge impact. The disguise ends games straight up. I wouldn't be embarrassed running this out as a 4 mana 4/4, but you normally do want to get the flip.

If your opponent makes a weird attack with 7 mana up and a morph, have this on your radar! Despite being a powerful effect, it is very telegraphed. I have stolen some games from opponents planning everything around flipping this for the win only for it to be too obvious.

5.2 Green Overperformers

5.2.1 Loxodon Eavesdropper

13th in ATA despite being 7th in WR. DV really likes this, ranking it 8th. 3/3s dominate morphs. While a 4 mana is expensive for a 3/3, the clue token is worth the extra mana. Threat of activation can open free attacks. Actually cracking the clue can grant vigilance which is awesome when damage racing.

5.2.2 Fanatical Strength

Functional reprint of Staggering Size. Staggering Size was an overperformer in LCI, which you can read about here. Everything I wrote about Staggering Size can apply to Fanatical Strength. As a mana heavy set, the mana advantage from winning combat with a trick is especially valuable in MKM (i.e. trading a 2 mana instant for a >2 mana creature)

5.3 Green Underperformers

5.3.1 Case of the Trampled Garden

Once again, this is neither worth a card initially nor easy to flip in most decks. However, once solved it can be a powerful way to close out games. It is excellent when ahead, okay at parity, and worthless when behind. Win-more cards are not worth taking highly.

5.3.2 Sample Collector

This card looks respectable as a 2/3 that can grow other creatures. However, "collect evidence" creatures compete with each other. This is for the same reason that the 2nd Grim Lavamancer (one of my favorite cards!) is much weaker than the first. It's often better to preserve your graveyard for a big collect evidence effect than to get a 1/1 counter. It ranks 17th in DV while being drafted 8th in ATA. Not unplayable at all, just not a priority.

6.0 Red

Saved my favorite color for last! Nothing is sweeter than using cards like Searing Blaze and Smash to Smithereens to advance your game plan while leaving your opponent's board in taters. In MKM Red has some really nice cards (and even if it didn't, I'd still enjoy forcing it!). It has an average DV of 27 and a median of 28, ranking close to White.

6.1 Top 5 Red Commons/Uncommons

6.1.1 Torch the Witness

While 1-for-1 removal might be trending down in 2024, 2-for-1 removal will never go out of style!

6.1.2 Galvanize

A cheap burn spell that can answer big blockers. Remember that if your removal opens an attack, it isn't trading 1:1, it is trading for the creature and some damage. It's no Searing Blaze but can get tempo early and once enabled for 5 damage can clear those huge blockers to open lethal full swings!

6.1.3 Reckless Detective

It attacks as a 2/3 which is insane on turn 2. Opponents will usually be deploying 2/2 blockers which become completely ineffective. Throwing card selection into a color that doesn't want to draw too many lands puts this way over the top. Can effectively sacrifice your clue tokens "for free".

6.1.4 Shock

Me bolt face, me big brain! Actually, you mostly want to be bolting creatures in this set. Even with ward, this trades fairly with morphs (3 mana for 3 mana). Those trades become profitable if you have 1-drops and 2-drops to swing with. In limited, there can be such a thing as too much removal as you still need to win the game. The close out potential of face burn circumvents this. You can definitely take this early and often and not have to worry about having too much interaction.

6.1.5 Case of the Burning Masks

A 3 mana deal 3 is already worth playing. Although this can be tricky to solve, it is all upside! This doesn't just have 2-for-1 potential, it even gives card selection. This normally gets solved later in the game. Late in the game, you'll have more information about what exact cards you need making the selection especially valuable. Even if you solve it early, you can be patient and sacrifice it at the perfect moment.

6.2 Red Over Performers

6.2.1 The Chase Is On & Felonious Rage

Both of these tricks are doing pretty well. Rather than drawing conclusion about the individual cards, I think this helps us understand Red's role in the set. Morph creatures generate a lot of value for a lot of mana. Tricks are a great way to either push damage or let disposable threats trade for meaningful blockers. Red definitely want to get under the value piles, and these tricks even leave behind some value to keep up the pressure.

6.2.2 Offender at Large

6th in WR despite being 20th in ATA. DV splits the difference at 13th. I like that this makes an immediate impact with the ETB while also being a sizeable threat. I wouldn't want too many of these, but it is a nice closer at common.

6.3 Red Under Performers

6.3.1 Concealed Weapon

Too much mana for too little impact. Equipment can help small creature stay impactful, while running the risk of being a dud if all your creatures get answered. This compares poorly to reconfigure like Rabbit Battery and the Kaldheim Dwarven Hammer cycle. Those cards let you pick between bodies or equipping. Once you flip this, you can never get the 2/2 creature back.

6.3.2 Crime Novelist

This card doesn't do anything. 3 mana for a 1/3 sucks. By the time you can start growing it, opponent's will have deployed bigger and better things.

Appendix A - Data Dump

I don't cover Gold cards. This analysis is dependent on data. The performance of the respective color parings may drive DV more than the actual text on the cards. With morph + hybrid mana some of the gold cards can be played in mono decks - I wasn't sure how to evaluate these. That said, I'll end with a raw data dump of all the cards in the set: