1.0 Introduction

Last week I published a model to evaluate card performance based on draft position. I called the metric Draft Value (DV). The basic idea was to adjust GIH WR by ATA. I originally only ran it on Red. Now that LCI has been out for a week I ran it on all 5 colors.

In this article we’ll be looking at the top 5 common/uncommon cards in each color. Of course, the top 5 will be mostly uncommons since they are designed to be stronger than commons. I’ll be adding qualitative observations on the top 5 and highlight over performing and underperforming cards.

Based on feedback I added the metric Draft Value ALSA (DVS) which is the DV based on ALSA instead of ATA. Rankings by ALSA are almost identical to by ATA, so I’ll only be referring to DV in write-ups. The data dump in the appendix includes DVS. The smaller samples in the body only have DV for simplicity.

Before getting into the data, it’s worth restating a point from the previous article: DV is a tool to help players make decisions. It should not be used as the sole factor in determining a pick.

I roughly categorized DV. It’s hard to be precise since the overall performance of colors can impact individual card performance. This changes the GIH WR and therefore DV, making the exact number to grade conversion tricky. Treat the below as a rough guideline:

 2.0 Green

Green commons and uncommons have an average DV of 25 (median of 26). None of its top 5 cards score above 40. This quantitatively ranks it as the 4th best color with a fairly even distribution. Solid base color but you probably want a signal to go into it.

 2.1 Top 5 Green Commons/Uncommons

2.1.1 Thrashing Brontodon

4 toughness puts it out of the range of Abrade. Artifact sub-theme makes the activated ability invaluable, and it can even hit enchantments. Due to being a reprint, this card wasn’t talked about too much prior to release, but its high rank should be no surprise.

2.1.2 Colossadactyl

The main insight here is that the Green dinosaur deck is quite solid in this set. Any reasonably stated dinosaur is going to be a solid pick as a result. Flyers have traditionally been a way to out race big creature decks. Cheap flyers can get an early lead in life total and still close out the game over big blockers. Reach + trample closes the door.

2.1.3 Earthshaker Dreadmaw

Again, big dumb dinosaurs are legit in this set. You only need to draw 1 card off this Dreadmaw to feel good. The data shows that there are a ton of awesome dinos in this set. This big boy is a pretty safe early pick as you can reliably get other meaningful dinos to pay him off.

2.1.4 Cenote Scout

Theory states that explore is best on cheap cards. Early in the game, an extra land is worth a full card. Later on in the game it’s closer to a scry. Moreover, getting a +1/+1 counter on a 1/1 doubles its value while on a 4/4 it would be a 25% boost (worth mentioning that there are some boards where a 5/5 is many times better than a 4/4). This cards performance supports the high level theory around explore.

2.1.5 Poison Dart Frog

In the time between writing and publishing this dropped to 7th from 5th. The 5-7 range is very close (32.X), so I expect future fluctuations.

During spoilers, most people were bullish on this card. However, there were a few bears. With 1 week of data available, it’s clear the bulls have won out. I think this card’s performance sheds some insight into the overall set.

The removal in this set isn’t very good. That benefits Dart Frog in 2 ways. Opponents are less likely to be capable/willing to “bolt the bird”. Therefore, you can reasonably bet on untapping with this when making both deck building and gameplay decisions. Moreover, reach + deathtouch allows it to trade with practically any threat. Without removal, effective blockers become crucial.

2.2 Green Over Performers

2.2.1 Cavern Stomper

The biggest and dumbest dino at common. I suspect the relatively low ATA is driven by GG in the casting cost. This card is a notch below the uncommons we talked about earlier, and green is an average to below average color in the set. As a result, I wouldn’t call this under drafted, at least not in pack 1. GG requires you to be fairly heavily Green. While Cavern Stomper is a great pickup it isn’t a reason to be Green.

2.2.2 Staggering Size

A classic case of a high GIH WR with a low ATA. DV points to this being an above average common. Tricks like this (see Run Amok in previous sets) are normally only good in very aggressive decks. However, when you miss out on removal, tricks can take their place. With the entire set being light on removal, this trick isn’t just for aggro decks.

2.3 Green Underperformers

2.3.1 Coati Scavenger

I was stunned to see this as an under performer. However, under performing doesn’t mean the card is bad, just misevaluated. The core issue is that this card is weak on turn 3.

The reality is that in 2023 limited, a 3 CMC 3/2 no longer passes the vanilla test. We see plenty of 3/3, 4/2, and 2/4 statlines even at common. That doesn’t mean 3/2s are unplayable, just that they need a good ability to offset their now poor stats.

Scavenger has a situationally good ability. You can safely assume to get descend 4 at some point. However, you cannot assume that you’ll draw Scavenger while having descend 4 100% of the time. When a 3/2 is a useful body and you have descend 4 this is a clean 2-for-1. Very late in the game it’s a regrowth+ (3/2 body isn’t worth a card). Early it’s just a 3/2 (you often get bottlenecked at descend 2-3 in early turns).

It should be drafted as a situational 2-for-1 or a decent value card. However, it ranks 9th in ATA despite being 19th in WR, with DV (17th) backing up the WR. I would still play this card in a Green deck, I would just take it a few picks lower.

2.3.2 Twists and Turns

This is a poor performer relative to its draft position (16th in DV based on 17th in WR and 8th in ATA). The DV is basically saying that the GIH WR is fairly rating the card. It’s the 5th worst uncommon but does rank above 2/3 of the commons. The mystery to me here is how this became the 8th highest drafted Green card. It reads as a win-more card in draft, although it’s a great engine in sealed. You should probably draft this into a deck that can already enable it. Don’t make this an early pick and force the direction.

2.3.3 Glimpse the Core

This card is used in 2 ways:

The first use is as a cave enabler. The cave deck just isn’t good, despite Snow and Domain being good in KHM and DMU. I think the main issue is most caves only tap for 1 color of mana. The land decks usually become multi-color piles. In KHM and DMU most of the lands were duals allowing the decks to come together. The Cave deck just isn’t worth drafting unless it’s wide open.

The second use is as a turn 2 accelerant. Poison Dart Frog is just a much better option printed at a lower rarity. Due to the ATA, Dart Frog may be less available than Glimpse. Based on the data, I would fight over the Frogs before I’d rely on Glimpse.

3.0 White

White is actually my second most played color in magic (Boros Charm is technically a White card). I love how its pairing can make it either super controlling (Azorius) or all-in aggro (Boros). Commander players trash this color way too often - White is great in tournament and limited play.

White commons and uncommons have an average DV of 29 (median of 26). Its top 5 cards are all above 40 or the equivalent of a (non-bomb) Rare/Mythic. The gap between mean and median makes it seem like a top-heavy color. However, it only has 3 cards score below 20 in DV making it arguably the deepest color. Mathematically it ranks 2nd overall.

 3.1 Top 5 White Commons/Uncommons

3.1.1 Spring-Loaded Sawblades

The removal in this set sucks. Sawblades doesn’t. Not much to say here, no one should be surprised to see this at number 1. Petrify just missed the cut-off, ranking in 6th.

3.1.2 Clay-Fired Bricks

When the set was spoiled the consensus on this card was pretty simple. It looked great in slow decks and awkward in fast ones. This set is slower than WOE making Bricks a generally solid pick.

3.1.3 Ruin-Lurker Bat

I was definitely surprised to see this 1 drop ranked so highly at first. However, after looking at more of the data it makes sense. A 1 mana 1/1 flying + lifelink is a playable limited card in most sets. It holds equipment very well and in this set there is a good selection of equipment (especially when paired with Red). The lack of removal makes this a good closer in long games. Descend just isn’t that hard to trigger. Dropping this on turn 1 can give a huge amount of card selection.

3.1.4 Dusk Rose Reliquary

Same idea as Sawblades. This set doesn’t have a lot of great removal. While you’re technically 2-for-1ing yourself, there are enough disposable artifacts/creatures to make this a clean and cheap answer.

3.1.5 Oltec Cloud Guard

Marshall flagged this as the top white common in the Limited Resources review. The data says he was spot on. Pretty much everything said on the podcast has panned out in actual gameplay. LSV picked Tinker's Tote which ranks 3rd in DV among White commons.

3.2 White Over Performers

3.2.1 Miner's Guidewing

5th in WR and 14th in ATA. DV splits the difference at 9th. Qualitatively, it follows the same logic as Ruin-Lurker Bat. Cheap flyers represent real pressure given the lack of removal. Vigilance + flying pair great with equipment. Trading or chumping can also give some nice value off explore. Data says it should be treated as a top common as opposed to a middle of the road card.

3.2.2 Acrobatic Leap

ATA ranks this as a trash card (33rd) while WR has it as an average to above-average playable (16th). The DV of 23.3 (23rd) rates this as an average card. This definitely reads pretty poorly. However, with how bad the removal is, tricks become more valuable. Because this is mostly a defensive trick (only +1 damage) it doesn’t get boosted as much as Staggering Size. Deep in pack 1/2, I’d consider taking this over a creature instead of hoping to get removal in a later pack.

3.2.3 Deconstruction Hammer

1 mana to equip really makes this card pop. It ranks 17th in DV, essentially saying that GIH WR (13th) rates the card much more accurately than players are drafting it (27th in ATA). Creatures are by far the most important cards in the LCI meta. A cheap stat boost can make a significant impact in combat, especially when you can move it around in main phase 2. Doubles as much needed interaction and the data wants it to be drafted as a C to C+.

3.3 White Under Performers

3.3.1 Glorifier of Suffering

Same idea as Scavenger: a 3 CMC 3/2 isn’t good in 2023 limited. You need the ability to be good. On turn 3, you’ll rarely have the board to profitably use his ability. A 3-drop that is bad on turn 3 isn’t something you want in multiples. A DV of 21.2 basically means this is a fine wheel. However, the ATA of 7.92 is just too generous for what this card delivers in the average use case.

4.0 Blue

Let’s just say I sleeve up Lightning Bolt, Goblin Guide, and Sulfuric Vortex more often than Brainstorm, Force of Will, and Counterspell. I’ll try my best to put the Blue cards into context, but I’m not going to pretend to understand the color on a tournament level. Please take any observations here with even more grains of salt than the other colors.

Blue commons and uncommons have a mean DV of 27 (median of 27). Moreover, the top 5 have absurdly high scores (40-55 range). It clearly ranks as the best color.

 4.1 Top 5 Blue Commons/Uncommons

4.1.1 Zoetic Glyph

Players have anointed this as the Mythic uncommon. By DV, this is literally the case. Its score of 52.4 is absurd as the 50 range is largely bomb rares and mythics in historical sets. To put it simply, DV is saying that all the r/lrcast posts praising the card are spot on.

4.1.2 Spyglass Siren

Technically a 2nd Mythic uncommon (DV of 51.5). This is the 3rd 1 mana flier we’ve talked about so far. Without much removal, bombs can take over games. When you don’t have bombs of your own you need to present a fast clock to beat opposing bombs. Curving out is the best way to do so, which requires some 1-drops. Fliers are great because even if you don’t have them on turn 1 they can still impact life totals. The map token can either double the pressure or give card advantage.

4.1.3 Staunch Crewmate

You only need 6 artifacts/pirates to have a >50% chance of hitting (hypergeometric distribution, population = 39 sample = 4). 11 gives a >75% chance. This cards rating is the result of pirates and artifacts being well supported. Blue (and Red) have a decent number of pirates and especially artifacts that score well in DV. It just isn’t that hard to get 6+ hits in your deck.

4.1.4 Waterwind Scout

The data is saying you basically get what you pay for relative to Spyglass Siren. For 2 extra mana, you get 2 extra points of stats with the same abilities. 3 mana is a lot more than 1 mana - harder to double spell, cannot play on turn 1 where there is minimal opportunity cost (rarely have alternative turn 1 plays). However, it only scores 10 points and 2 ranks lower than Siren making it a respectable common.

4.1.5 Lodestone Needle

Once again, removal is generally bad in this set. Most interactive cards score well. Tap + 2 stun counters is essentially a removal spell in a short game. In a long game, this flips into a great value engine.

4.2 Blue Over Performers

4.2.1 Unlucky Drop

A top performer (9th in WR) being taking relatively low (25th). DV of 27 ranks 15th, and being the 15th best card in the best color makes this a genuinely good pick. Again, the removal in this set sucks so any reasonable interaction is worth taking. Draft this as a C to C+.

4.2.2 Orazca Puzzle-Door

At first glance, it’s good for this card to be doing so well (12th in WR while being taken 24th). DV splits the difference at 18th. LCI is a fairly synergistic set and this card enables both artifact strategies and descend. The data is essentially saying that drafting a synergistic deck is more important than having individually powerful cards.

4.2.3 Cogwork Wrestler

Remember all the cheap creatures that ranked highly in DV? This cheap creature is also a relative steal at 15th in ATA and 5th in WR ranking 8th in DV. He doubles as a trick to help the lack of removal and also enables artifact strategies. Another case of a card being better than drafted but not quite as good as the GIH WR makes it appear.

4.3 Blue Under Performers

4.3.1 Hurl into History

DV ranks 23rd despite being the 17th highest drafted. It’s easy to see the problem. Holding up 5 mana for a counterspell is a big ask. If your opponent goes for a craft instead of a spell, you get timewalked.

5.0 Black

Black has a mean DV of 24 (median of 23). However, its top 5 cards are roughly comparable to the other colors. Overall, it ranks as the 5th best color but is by no means unplayable like Blue in AFR.

 5.1 Top 5 Black Commons/Uncommons

5.1.1 Deep-Cavern Bat

Yet another cheap flier ranking highly. It can be hard to trade with, making it close to a 2-for-1.

5.1.2 Chupacabra Echo

A lot of the top commons and uncommons in the other colors have low toughness. As a result, it is fairly easy for this card to snipe a meaningful creature. Even in very short games, it will do something useful. In long games it can even 2-for-1 opposing bombs.

5.1.3 Bitter Triumph

2 CMC removal is always good in limited. Instead of analysis, I’d like to ask readers a question: At what life cost would this card become average in limited? Infernal Grasp was awesome for 2 life, and this is still awesome for 3. Would this became average at 4 or does it need a more extreme cost?

5.1.4 Defossilize

Another sign of LCI being slower than WOE. This is a great value card, but can get stuck in your hand in short games. Getting back a meaningful threat (e.g. recycling a bomb rare) is already awesome. Adding some combination of free lands and +1/+1 counters is a bargain at 5 CMC provided a sufficiently slow meta.

5.1.5 Join the Dead

Qualitatively this looks like premium removal. Mathematically, it is in fact premium removal.

5.2 Black Over Performers

5.2.1 Abyssal Gorestalker

Despite the GIH WR and DV indicating that this is better than being drafted, I would not actually consider this to be an under drafted card. It has pretty heavy deck building restrictions. You should be drafting it into a shell that can support it instead of speculating early. Here over performing means that the token/disposable creature strategies are pretty good and you should keep an open mind to drafting that deck.

5.2.2 Primordial Gnawer

This card reads like a mixed bag. High power and low toughness means it can trade way up or way down (although it’s mathematically hard for a 5 drop to trade up). Also a clean 2-for-1 off of discover. In a fast set it wouldn’t be a good enough blocker for 5 mana. However, LCI is relatively slow so this card is out performing its draft position. I’d be willing to start taking this card a little higher.

5.3 Black Underperformers

5.3.1 Soulcoil Viper

Remember what we said earlier about a 3/2 being bad? A 2/3 is arguably even worse as it cannot trade up or put on pressure. The only thing it does effectively is block. I’d much rather take Defossilize especially with Black opening up the past few days.

5.3.2 Grasping Shadows

The 11th highest drafted Black card has the 28th best GIH WR, ranking 26th in DV. I’m stunned, as I’ve been impressed by the card especially when it’s on the other side of the table. I guess our brains remember the games where this card singlehandedly won, and doesn’t pick up on the times it sucked. We also never get to see the times it’s stuck in an opponent’s hand. I don’t have an explanation for the data.

In general, if you cannot explain the data it might be worth ignoring the result. Maybe other players can better understand why this card is doing poorly. I suspect it has something to do with having to attack alone. Black doesn’t have that many evasive creatures or huge ground bodies.

6.0 Red

Mathematically, Red ranks 3rd. It has a mean DV of 24 (median of 26) but its top 5 smoke Green’s top 5.

Since last week’s post, none of the commons/uncommons have had material changes in DV. I have an updated table below, but you can use the previous write up for qualitative observations.

 Appendix A – Using Data

One more time: DV is a tool to help players make decisions. It should not be used as the sole factor in determining a pick.

MLB teams combine sabermetrics with traditional scouting to build the best roster possible. Data in magic should be treated the same way. An AI drafting solely on data would lose to a good player making qualitative picks. However, a good player that combines data with qualitative analysis will end up with a better deck than a good player who ignores data.

Discussions on data in magic often circle back to the limitations of data. However, data isn’t the limitation. The way data is used is the limitation. Data shouldn’t be used to make decisions. It should be used to understand them. I hope reading this article has helped illustrate the value of combining numerical analysis with qualitative skill. I’ll end with a raw data dump of all the cards in LCI.